Recent headlines in the Boulder Daily
Camera stated that sales in Boulder
had dropped 50% during the first quarter.
Numbers don’t lie but I think the
headline and story gave only a partial
view. The public is not looking for a
macro view of things, they are looking
for how the situation pertains to them
personally. In order to present this
more accurately, we need to break it down a bit. As Paul Harvey used to say, “now
here’s the rest of the story”.
Boulder County has a broad range of real estate and what affects Mapleton Hill
in Boulder does not affect Mill Village in Longmont. I have been noticing that the
lower priced homes in any given market are selling well and taken alone can be
considered a healthy market. The higher price ranges of any of our local areas are
not doing as well. Here are a few commonalities between all markets: real estate
everywhere has been negatively affected by all-time low consumer confidence
levels, tough credit conditions and increasing unemployment rates.
Instead of combining all sales together I’d like to present some data in smaller
pieces and show how each price range is different and why. The following statistics
are derived from IRES data and include residential detached and attached
dwellings.
First Quarter Sales
2008 2009 Change
$250,001 – $400,000 255 178 -30%
$400,001 – $800,000 212 122 -42%
$800,001 – $1,200,000 37 20 -46%
$250,000 316 228 -28%
Combined 849 563 -34%
$1,200,000 29 15 -48%
First Quarter Sales
2008 2009 Change
Boulder 270 178 -34%
Louisville 52 40 -23%
Lafayette 73 47 -36%
Longmont 268 183 -32%
Suburban Mountains 35 22 -37%
Suburban Plains 121 70 -42%
Superior 30 25 -17%
Under Contract %
$250,001 $400,000 25%
$400,001 – $800,000 15%
$800,001 – $1,200,000 11%
$250,000 31%
$1,200,000 4%
Inventory in Months
$250,001 – $400,000 7.1 Months
$400,001 – $800,000 11.8 Months
$800,001 – $1,200,000 19.5 Months
$250,000 5.7 Months
$1,200,000 52.5 Months
Every price range is down but as the price increases not only do the number of
sales go down, the percentage drop increases. The high end has been especially
hit hard I believe, for three reasons; high interest rates for jumbo loans, losses
in the stock market and the fact that buying a high-end home is a luxury not a
The areas that have the higher concentration of high priced homes are the areas
that saw the greatest declines in first quarter sales.
The first quarter is now in the past, let’s move forward. Here is what is happening
right now in the different price ranges.
When at least 15% of the market
is under contract it is considered
healthy. Given this criteria only the
market above $800,000 in Boulder
County would be considered
unhealthy. With low conventional
interest rates and incentives for
first time buyers, the market below
$400,000 is especially strong.
The absorption rate or current
inventory measures how long it would
take to sell all homes in any given
range, given a historical sales rate (I
used the 12 month sales rate which
results in lower results). These figures
are quite dramatic when looked at
by price range. When looking at the
entire picture it becomes clear that
not all houses are affected the same
by the current market challenges.
Low priced homes are moving well
and high priced homes are oversupplied
for the current demand.
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